Simplicity versus complexity: an existential dilemma as risk tools evolve

Distributed Computer Environment Software Maintenance:System Complexity Versus Component Simplicity

Simplicity versus complexity in modelling groundwater recharge in Chalk catchments

Models of varying complexity are available to provide estimates of recharge in headwater Chalk catchments. Some measure of how estimates vary between different models can help guide the choice of model for a particular application. This paper compares recharge estimates derived from four models employing input data at varying spatial resolutions for a Chalk headwater catchment (River Pang, UK) ...

Spirolaterals, Complexity from Simplicity

This paper investigates spirolaterals for their beauty of form and the unexpected complexity arising from them. From a very simple generative procedure, spirolaterals can be created having great complexity and variation. Using mathematical and computer-based methods, issues of closure, variation, enumeration, and predictictability are discussed. A historical review is also included. The overrid...

Complexity, simplicity, and epidemiology.

It should be stressed that although many phenomena are complex, 15 the concept of ‘complexity’ is more specific. Complexity is the study of complex adaptive systems. These have been defined as ‘a collection of individual agents with freedom to act in ways that are not always totally predictable, and whose actions are interconnected so that one agent’s actions changes the context for other agent...

Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority

Existential risks are those that threaten the entire future of humanity. Many theories of value imply that even relatively small reductions in net existential risk have enormous expected value. Despite their importance, issues surrounding human-extinction risks and related hazards remain poorly understood. In this article, I clarify the concept of existential risk and develop an improved classi...